지금 정부에서 citi지분을 40%로 올리기 위한 협상이 진행중이라고 하는군요. 지난주에 정부에서는 C와 BAC에대한 국유화계획이 없다고 밝혔는데 이번엔 citi쪽에서 먼저 정부에 지분율을 늘려줄것을 요청했다는 예기가 흘러 나오고 있습니다. 그만큼 citi의 내부사정이 생각보다 상당히 안좋다는 말인데, BAC는 잘 버틸지…. 이번주 부터는 연방 금융감독기구에서 각 금융기관에 대한 stress test도 시작되는데 BAC도 상태가 어느정도인지 결과가 나오겠죠.

아무튼, 시간이 지날수록 비관론자들이 꾸준히 주장하고있는 nationalization이 힘을얻고 있는것같군요.

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Citigroup in Talks That May Raise Government’s Stake, WSJ Says

By Brett Miller

Feb. 23 (Bloomberg) — Citigroup Inc., the recipient of $45 billion in U.S. government aid, is in talks with federal officials that may increase state ownership of the bank, the Wall Street Journal said.

The government may end up holding as much as 40 percent of Citigroup’s common stock, the newspaper said, citing people familiar with the situation it didn’t identify. Citigroup spokesman Jon Diat declined to comment on the report.

Citigroup, which slumped 22 percent in New York trading Feb. 20 on concern it may be nationalized, proposed to its regulators that the government convert a large portion of its preferred shares into common stock in a transaction that wouldn’t cost taxpayers more money, the Journal reported. Another taxpayer- funded bailout would probably cost Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pandit his job, the report said.

Investors including William Smith of Smith Asset Management in New York have blamed Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner’s failure to clarify his intentions regarding Citigroup and Bank of America Corp. for hurting the companies’ stocks. Citigroup shares have tumbled 71 percent this year and Bank of America is down 73 percent, ranking the banks among the 10 worst performers on the S&P 500 index.

Citigroup shares traded in Tokyo reversed earlier losses, gaining 3.8 percent to 230 yen at 12:58 p.m. local time after slumping as much as much as 18 percent to a record low. The stock has lost 94 percent since Citigroup listed shares on the bourse on Nov. 5, 2007 — the day former CEO Charles Prince was ousted.

Nationalization Concern

“It’s the right move” for the U.S., said Winson Fong, who helps oversee $2 billion at SG Asset Management Hong Kong Ltd. “This should have happened much earlier. To rescue a bank, you need to give it more capital.”

Banks may have to be nationalized for “a short time” to help lenders such as Citigroup and Bank of America survive the worst economic slump in 75 years, Senate Banking Committee Chairman Christopher Dodd said on Feb. 20. Bank of America and Citigroup have received a combined $90 billion in U.S. aid in four months.

The administration of President Barack Obama said on Feb. 20 that a “privately held” banking system is the “correct way to go” and House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank said nationalization ought “to be avoided.”

Citigroup, which is trading at its lowest level in 18 years, would prefer the government stake in the New York-based company to be closer to 25 percent, the Journal said.

Citigroup’s capital base is “strong” and Tier 1 capital ratio, a measure of its ability to absorb losses, was 11.9 percent at the end of the fourth quarter, “among the highest in the industry,” spokeswoman Shannon Bell said last week.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brett Miller in Tokyo at bmiller30@bloomberg.net;

오늘 CNBC에서 보도하기를 AIG가 추가로 자금지원을 못받을 경우를 대비해 Weil, Gotshal & Manges(작년에 AIG에서 고용한 law firm – Lehman Brothers파산도 처리했던 회사)에서 이미 bankrupcy준비를 하고있는 중이라는군요.

보아하니 GE도 어째 불안해 보이던데…..

기사 잘 읽었습니다. 레만 파산시킨거 무터 잘못됬다고들 하던데 설마 AIG 나 C까지 가만놔둘까요?

Mr. Bernanke가 오늘 Congress speech에서 “I do not see any reason to destroy the franchise value or to create the huge legal uncertainties of trying to formally nationalize a bank when it just is not necessary.”라고 말하면서 나중에 공화당의원의 nationalization에 대한 추가질문에 그 대답으로 “there will be some public ownership”라고 다시 말했더군요. 그러나 의심이 가는부분은 정부가 문제가있는 은행들에 대하여 갖게될 ownership이 ‘some of it’이 될지 ‘most of it’이 될지 아니면 ‘all of it’이 될지 아직 장담을 하기어렵다는 거지요. 그 이유는 이미 정부가 상당히 많이 소유하고있는 부실은행의 preferred stock 때문이죠. 이 preferred stock은 기업의 입장에서 보면 ‘debt’의 성격이 강하기때문에 엄청난 부담으로 작용할수 있고 그결과 대부분의 preferred stock이 common stock으로 전환되지 안을까 생각이 들고요… 거기에 추가로 지원되는 fund(stock purchase포함)는 결국 ownership과 직결이되죠. 한마디로 nationalization은 정부가 한다 안한다로 결정나는 문제가 아니라 market상황이 결정하게 될거라고 봅니다.

오늘 Mr. Bernanke가 “in my view there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery”라고 한말을 newspaper headline으로 뽑아놓은 덕에 stock market이 좀 영향을 받은것 같은데 그 Bernanke의 full statement가 이렇습니다.

“If actions taken by the Administration, the Congress, and the Federal Reserve are successful in restoring some measure of financial stability — and only if that is the case, in my view — there is a reasonable prospect that the current recession will end in 2009 and that 2010 will be a year of recovery. If financial conditions improve, the economy will be increasingly supported by fiscal and monetary stimulus, the salutary effects of the steep decline in energy prices since last summer, and the better alignment of business inventories and final sales, as well as the increased availability of credit”

모두 ‘if’와 ‘only if’로 되있습니다. 고로 Bernanke가 말한 행간을 보면 ‘I have no idea if we can make it’라고 고백하는걸로 들리는건 저만일까요????