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I happened to find some interesing tables in my computer files. The first table shows the presidential cycle versus stock market performance. The preelection year(3rd year) and election year(4th year) is normally strong, while the postelection year(1st year) and mideyear(2nd year) are normally weak. However, there is a big exception – Hoover era – due to the Great Depression. I hope Obama does not revisit the situation of Hoover’s era.
The second table demonstrates the stock behavior on the election year from 1924 to 2004. In general, the stock market would have some good rally for Nov. and Dec. as the election is finished. But it appears that’s not the case for this year.
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that was an interesting historical data. i liked your analysis based on numerical data and attempting to combine it with your own theory. i believe thats where objective criticism could come into a play.
i agree that the fed has been the regulator of money supply since its born, but i disagree that its a private identity. i would say its a hybrid identiy as long as it is a cartel. the monetary policy change was legislated by u.s. congress back then when it was founded. that means u.s government is not be free from duty, but the major right is ironically taken by private bankers. more precisely, it was an outcome from european banking interests. they wanted put america into their orbit, and i still believe great depression came from lack of money supply. a little panic was previously created by jp morgan even before great depression. the panic easily created fear so then americans finally handed their money depository to moguls from europe by signing upon the agreement. the fed system nowadays has been able to track down money depository all over the country, and has known how much transaction is made by whom and when in real time so that having control has given them more and more creativities. they can do whatever they want, no kidding.
To spice more on your analysis, and also in case you missed one element of iron triangle, eisenhower in his speech addressed that the u.s. is military-industrial complex. by looking at the table you posted, we can surely say the bull market is somewhat relevant to warfare of u.s. goverment. we dont even need to go back too far to understand it. prior to this financial crisis, there had been attacking in iraq twice – im not sure if camels on iraq desert are still trying to damage bradley armor with their fatty tissue.
we have seen last bull market almost half a decade because of the unrealized/realized economic boom affected by iraq war. look lincoln, there was civil war. roosevelt with wwii, eisenhower with korean war, and nixon with vietnam war. whos the next? maybe we have another war to come.however, it is still moot if the past can possibly provide us foreknowledge on any future incidence – if it did, there would be plenty of economists sitting on money with no doubt. moreover, one of my respectful investors said that we cannot see the future thru the rearview mirror. pattern matching is always an interesting thing to do in case with thresholds in leniency, but the tolerance wont be tolerated when it doesnt go along well with the easy guesstimation. some traces to grab a symptom would be the best means unless we have a total control, and we will have no fear as long as we know what we are doing.